Gallagher Re and KYND: Why Digital Footprints Outperform Revenue in Cyber Claim Prediction

Gallagher Re and KYND have released new research showing that digital footprint data can improve cyber claim prediction beyond traditional underwriting factors such as revenue, industry, and geography.

The paper, Digital Footprint Data and Cyber Claims Frequency: Assessing the Predictive Value of Technographic Insights, examines whether a better understanding of an organisation's external digital presence can help cyber insurers assess the likelihood of future claims.

Cyber insurers have long relied on firmographic information (such as company revenue, industry sector and country), alongside external security indicators, to support underwriting and risk selection. While these factors remain important, Gallagher Re's analysis suggests they do not fully describe the scale, complexity, and structure of an organisation's external technology footprint.

Drawing on Gallagher Re's claims and firmographic data and KYND's external technographic observations across more than 63,000 insured organisations, the study explores how insurers can use external digital footprint data to support better risk selection while reducing underwriting friction for brokers and insureds.

Rather than relying solely on lengthy questionnaires or traditional firmographics, insurers can incorporate observable indicators of internet-facing complexity into underwriting and portfolio management decisions.

The study compared two approaches to cyber risk analysis: a standalone model using only technographic observations, and a combined model integrating technographic and traditional firmographic information. While digital footprint indicators demonstrated predictive value in isolation, the strongest results were achieved when technical and traditional underwriting data were used together.

Among the most predictive technographic indicators were measures linked to the scale and complexity of an organisation's internet-facing environment. Distinct ISP count emerged as the strongest contributor, followed by email provider diversity, externally exposed services and IP footprint.

The study also found that organisations with more complex and distributed external digital footprints, as measured through indicators such as ISP diversity, were more likely to experience cyber claims. This relationship appeared broadly consistent across revenue bands, suggesting these signals provide meaningful insight beyond company size.

Ed Pocock, Global Head of Cyber Security at Gallagher Re, said: "We've spent a lot of time in cyber asking whether the doors are locked, but we've spent much less time asking how big the building is. Security indicators matter, as do measures like revenue and industry, but they do not capture the size and complexity of an organisation's internet-facing footprint."

“This work with KYND suggests that understanding an organisation's digital footprint carries its own signal for claim frequency, beyond those established factors. We're only scratching the surface of what this data can tell us, but it gives us a useful, evidence-led starting point for understanding cyber exposure better.” said Ed Pocock, Global Head of Cyber Security at Gallagher Re.

Melanie Hayes, Co-Founder at KYND, added: “For years, cyber underwriting has relied heavily on firmographic indicators. While these remain important, they do not always reflect the scale and complexity of an organisation's digital footprint."

“Understanding an organisation's external digital estate can provide a valuable additional lens on cyber exposure, as two companies with similar revenues may have vastly different internet-facing environments, creating very different risk profiles."

“As the cyber insurance market continues to mature, data-driven insights into digital footprint and complexity will become increasingly important in helping insurers make more informed underwriting decisions and improve risk selection.” said Melanie Hayes, Co-Founder at KYND.